White Christmas? Probably Not

There’s been little to post about on this blog since October 30th since the weather pattern has been so quiet and so mild and so boring! There are many indications that this tranquil and relatively mild weather pattern will continue through New Years and probably into the beginning of January.

The climatological odds of a white Christmas (based on 1981-2010 normals) range from about 20% in Groton to 70% in far northwest Connecticut. The I-84 corridor has a slightly less than 50/50 shot at a snow depth >1″ on Christmas morning. The exact percentage is probably close to 40 or 45% in metro Hartford.

This year given the pattern, and the tendency for storms and air masses to trend warmer than forecasted by models, I’d say you can probably lop about half off your climatological chances for a white Christmas. Here’s a rough estimate for Christmas 2011:

  • New Haven – 10%
  • Hartford – 20%
  • Torrington – 30%

Not very good. Across northern New England there’s a chance for a little snow on 12/21 which may be enough to spare Vermont, New Hampshire, and interior Maine from a brown Christmas.