Hermine made landfall in Florida last night and is moving northeast fairly rapidly. What makes Hermine unusual is that its forward motion will slow off the Mid Atlantic coast and it will stall for several days south of New England. This morning, however, there is some good news for Connecticut. It appears that the “stall” will happen far enough south and east to spare us a major impact Sunday and Monday.
Here’s the overnight GFS and Euro models which show great agreement with a stall east of Delaware/Maryland on Sunday.
While this will bring some wind and some rain to Connecticut later Sunday and Monday the impact will be limited. At this point I’m not expecting inland flooding or wind damage – though minor coastal flooding is likely on Long Island Sound with prolonged easterly winds. You can see the spike in the tide level Sunday night at Bridgeport on this forecast below. This is not an alarming spike – it is something we see fairly often with storms to our south.
What’s less clear is what Hermine does after its Labor Day vacation sitting over the Atlantic off of Delaware. Does it come north to New England or scoot out to sea? At this point the latter seems more likely but we certainly don’t know for sure.
The bottom line is at this point Hermine’s impact here appears to be fairly small. Some wind and some rain – enough to ruin beach plans – but not enough to cause widespread damage. There is still a small chance we see a bump north with Hermine’s stall which would increase the wind and rain intensity so we will need to watch it closely. Farther south, the most significant impact from Hermine may be on the Jersey Shore and parts of the Delmarva Penninsula where major coastal flooding and beach erosion is likely.