Sunday Storm Update

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As I mentioned earlier this morning there was a sizable jump east on many of our computer models overnight. While there are several reasons for this one thing is clear – the odds of a “blockbuster” or 12″+ storm in Connecticut is now quite low. No models show rapid intensification of this storm until it’s basically north of our latitude.

That said, I do think many of us will be shoveling Sunday night and Monday morning. The GFS ensemble has a pretty realistic display of the options on the table.

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While 6 (of 21) GFS ensemble members have basically no snow accumulation the majority of members do have some. In fact 12 of 21 are above the mean which is 0.37″ of liquid or close to 4″ of snow.

The Euro Ensemble looks pretty close to this as well.

While there is still a chance for a miss entirely I’m pretty confident many of us will see accumulating snow. There is an upper limit to this storm, however, and it’s probably around 10″ or so. We can handle it. Welcome to spring!

2 thoughts on “Sunday Storm Update”

  1. Thanks for these updates, Ryan. I understand depth is the variable,but how about timing? Is this going to be one of those cancel school because it’s coming down at morning bus time but then nice in the afternoon? or will it stop early enough Mon AM to allow plows to clear before buses?

  2. Glad to see the snow will struggle to stick in most places. Our subtropical sun angle is just too strong now. The ground is nice and warm and that should make quick work of any snow that survives Sunday night.

    It was a nice winter and we have another long hot and sunny East Coast summer ahead.

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