Sunday Night Nor’Easter Threat Grows

Odds are increasing that we’ll be dealing with a significant nor’easter Sunday night and Monday morning. Last night’s European model shows a doozy of a snowstorm with a nor’easter taking a classic track for a Connecticut crushing.

ecmwf_apcp_f108_ne

Note: this is also the new and improved European model which was just recently upgraded. The European ensembles (51 different European models each a bit perturbed or with slightly different model physics) have fairly high probabilities of >6″ of snow across Connecticut – around 50%!

eps_snow_6_ma_21

This storm is still not a lock. The GFS model is only a glancing blow (although a number of the GFS ensembles are big hits – at least 50% of them).

gfs_op_apcp_f90_ne

There’s also a chance that the storm tracks too far west and winds up bringing a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain which would limit the amount of snow accumulation.

Putting it all together, the odds of a significant storm on Sunday night are increasing though there is still some uncertainty here. It is fair to say the goal posts are beginning to narrow a bit with signals growing for a pretty sizable system.

1 thought on “Sunday Night Nor’Easter Threat Grows”

  1. Pretty good clustering of ensembles for large storm right around 40/70 mark which is a good signal for a major snow event may mix at beginning but should become an all snow event

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