Major Nor’Easter Likely Later Sunday

After our earliest 80 degree day on record we may be looking at an unusual (but not unheard of) spring snowstorm across Connecticut. There has been a fair amount of spread in our computer model solutions along with poor run-to-run continuity by some of our models. Today, there is fair agreement that a major nor’easter is likely.

ecmwf_apcp_f108_ne

The European computer model is most impressive with near-blizzard conditions across Connecticut Sunday night and Monday morning. This would be a beast of a storm with over a foot of snow in many areas. There are other possibilities here, however.

The GFS model, our less than stellar American computer model, is stubbornly showing a weak and out-to-sea solution. This seems unlikely to me for a number of reasons including the fact most of the GFS ensemble member (21 versions of the GFS with slightly different tweaks and perturbations) are much more impressive than the operational GFS. Many members have a Euro-esque solution.

gfs_op_apcp_f84_ne

I do think there is a reasonable chance the storm comes even farther west than the Euro shows which would introduce the chance for a wintry mix – particularly south and east of Hartford. The Euro Ensembles show a tight clustering between Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard which, if history is any guide, would introduce mixed precipitation in places.

You can see a hint of this on this map which shows the probability of seeing >6″ of snow. Basically what percentage of the 51 European Ensemble members show >6″ in any given area. There is a slight hint that inland areas – and especially the Berkshires – are favored. Regardless, probabilities greater than 70% over NW CT are quite impressive at this time range!

eps_snow_6_ma_21

It’s fair to say that a major nor’easter is the most likely outcome for Sunday night’s storm. The heaviest snow should fall Sunday evening and Sunday night – and there may be some issue with mixed precipitation. While there is a chance for a miss or a glancing blow I think those odds have gone down today.

 

6 thoughts on “Major Nor’Easter Likely Later Sunday”

  1. I was looking at crocuses today, put it remember a blizzard hitting on April 4, in the 80’s, so we know anything is possible.

  2. We are having a wedding shower at a home on Cosey Beach Ave on Sunday at noon. Should we cancel, or do you think that the timing of the snow will begin in the very late afternoon or early evening, and wont be much of a problem. Shower will end by 4:00 or sooner.

  3. I’m supposed to be flying into JFK from South America on Sunday night landing around 10:30 pm…what are you thinking about the NYC area and my drive back to CT?

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