Weekend Nor’Easter – More Model Swings

Seeing our computer models swing back and forth from major snowstorm to out-to-sea miss never instills much confidence in any particular solution. As I’ve posted over the last few days the range of possible solutions Sunday night includes a miss, a glancing blow, or a major nor’easter – that hasn’t changed.

What is interesting is that the afternoon European model has shifted west by a significant margin showing a significant snowstorm for just about all of southern New England. This isn’t the only model now showing a major nor’easter and the potential for a major snowstorm.

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Is this a fluke? Maybe not. The European Ensembles (basically a low powered version of the European run 51 different times with various perturbations and changes to the model physics) are quite bullish. About 60% of the members show over 3″ of snow Sunday night across Connecticut!

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There’s no need to worry yet. We’re still between 4 and 5 days out and there are a number of plausible scenarios that wouldn’t result in significant snow. While a 96-108 hour forecast is low confidence to begin with this forecast is particularly low confidence due to the poor run-to-run consistency in our computer guidance.

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