Nor’Easter Update

There’s been a tick east overnight in our computer models which decreases the chance of getting a snowstorm in southern New England Sunday night and Monday. However, there’s still a large spread in possible solutions ranging from a major snowstorm to complete miss to the east though the odds of a miss or only minor event are certainly higher than a significant storm.

Here’s the overnight European forecast showing a glancing blow with a minor amount of snow over Connecticut.

ecmwf_apcp_f132_ne

The GFS is equally unimpressive – with a majority of GFS ensemble members showing a miss. There are, however, a few bullish GFS ensemble members that deliver a significant snow to the region. You can see that on this plume diagram with one member showing 0.3″ of liquid and two members showing around 0.75″ liquid (you can think of this as 3″ and 7″ of snow, respectively as a very rough approximation).

gefs

There is still a big caution flag here. The overnight European Ensembles remain more bullish than either the GFS or European. The 51-member Euro Ensembles (designed to give a range of possible solutions) has a number of very bullish members and the mean solution is much more farther west than the operational Euro. There has been a shift east here as well overnight.

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