More Snow Expected

This is a super tough forecast for tomorrow. This is the kind of setup that can produce isolated bands of heavy snow while other areas almost get completely shut out. A forecast of 0″-6″ is probably a reasonable spread across the state – though we won’t be showing that on air for obvious reasons.

snow111

I’m going to start out with the GFS which shows the potential for 4″ or 5″ of snow on the Connecticut shoreline with an impressive looking setup. Strong lift in the snow growth zone coupled with a conditionally unstable temperature profile sends up plenty of warning flags for a big event! But, is the GFS right?

Our convection-allowing UCAR ensembles which I’ve had tremendous success with do show the potential for several inches of snow. Here is how they look in the Hartford area.

Capture1

Fairly tight clustering between 0.15″ and 0.35″ of liquid (read: 2″-4″ of snow) tomorrow – especially around 7 a.m. Given the instability modeled (total totals approaching 60!) our convection allowing and high resolution models should have a better handle on this event.

That said, other computer models remain quite unimpressive. The RPM (a WRF model run by WSI) shows less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation statewide – with most of the state getting 0.00″!

So it’s a bit of a conundrum. While there are many signals pointing to an “overperformer” in some area – there are other signals that are less impressive. I’d say the most likely scenario is 1″-3″ across the state with the potential for a pocket of up to 5″ of snow if a band of heavy snow were to develop – though this is by no means a certainty!

8 thoughts on “More Snow Expected”

  1. Ryan,

    For the omega contour on the sounding, from just looking at that alone how do you determine what indicates strong lift?

  2. How about a guide for reading that first chart, Ryan? I’m pretty good with data, but that one is tough to read!
    BTW, love this blog. It’s my new go-to site for figuring out what’s really going on w/CT weather.

  3. What’s nice is a see the big warm up next week….NWS is saying near 50F for the Tri-State area by next Thur/Fri. That sound help melt most of the light snowcover we have in Connecticut.

    I hope Feb can hang and remain above normal like December and January was at NWS Bradley and Bridgeport. Those 50’s and 60’s of March and April are right around the corner!

  4. One other note (my key board is not working so bear with me)….but it looks like NWS Bradley is running below normal for snowfall. Hope it continues right to end of Feb!

Leave a Reply to Ryan Hanrahan Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *