Winter Storm Likely on Wednesday

The timing couldn’t be worse – a nor’easter on the busiest travel day of the year. The question now is how close to the coast will it track and how much snow will we see.

It’s a juicy storm with origins in the Gulf of Mexico. Both the European model and GFS model show a substantial storm nearby.

ecmwf_apcp_f90_ne

gfsNE_prec_prec_081

The European solution – with a strong storm hugging the coast is the solution is the one I think is most likely to verify. About half of the European ensemble members show a low track just south of Long Island.

The Euro scenario would be snow to sleet to rain (maybe freezing rain in the northwest hills?) while the GFS would be mainly snow. The Euro solution – with its ensemble support – is not a blockbuster snowstorm for Connecticut but it would be a royal pain for the day before Thanksgiving.

At the very least plan for an ugly day of travel on Wednesday.

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