Arthur Strengthens, Will Miss Connecticut

145432W5_NL_sm

The 11 a.m. National Hurricane Center advisory brings Hurricane Arthur fairly close to the 40N/70W benchmark but continues to show the storm passing well south of Connecticut.

We continue to expect no direct impact from Arthur. Even indirect impacts may be tough to come by. The Predecessor Rain Event or “PRE” as I discussed earlier doesn’t look like a major weather-maker here but I can’t say that yet for sure. We’ll have to watch how storms behave later tonight – can’t rule out a flood threat tonight/this evening.

As for thunderstorms, a combination of moderate instability and modest/moderate wind shear today will be enough for scattered severe weather today – particularly inland. The best forcing will be across northern areas up through western Massachusetts and there will be a bit of convective inhibition (or CIN) to overcome along the shoreline.

On Friday, as Arthur makes its closest pass a period of heavy rain is possible as some moisture gets involved with a slow moving cold front but our computer models are really struggling with this potential. Stay tuned for more on Friday!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *