Black Friday Nor’easter

It’s certainly not the most exciting storm but it is something to talk about!! Pressures are starting to fall off the Mid Atlantic coast and convection is firing south of ACK. Big time cyclogenesis is about to get underway. A strong vort max rounding the base of a strong and negatively tilted trough is interacting with a baroclinic zone along the coast. In a few hours – BOOM!

On the water vapor loop you can see the shortwave on the North Carolina/South Carolina border. As it moves offshore things are going to get going in a hurry. Pressures are dropping east of Long Island (about 3mb/3 hours) but will really start dropping quickly when the upper level energy moves off the coast. Rain is already breaking out south of New England and this will continue tonight. I’m expecting 0.5″-1.0″ of rain – though over well an inch is possible in eastern Connecticut depending on how close to the coast the storm tracks.

Big wind is likely as the storm wraps up (I’m seeing 60 knots at 850mb Saturday morning). This should mean widespread 40-50 mph wind gusts. Some snow is possible Friday night as temperatures crash as the storm pulls away in the hills. The boundary layer seems too warm in the valleys but above 1000 feet it should be cold enough for snow. Up to an inch is possible in some towns northeast and northwest of Hartford. Several inches of “upslope” snow late Friday and Friday night is likely in the Berkshires and up to a foot in some parts of Vermont.

Here’s my call for Friday/Saturday:

  • 0.75″ rain / 40 mph wind gust at BDR
  • 0.80″ rain / 45 mph wind gust at BDL
  • 1.00″ rain / 48 mph wind gust at BOS
  • 1.20″ rain / 45 mph wind gust at PVD
  • 1.20″ rain / 50 mph wind gust at ORH (snow: 0.5″)

Ryan

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