Another Quick Update

The 18z NAM is not terribly far off from what the 12z Euro shows in terms of wrap-around precipitation Friday evening. You can see the 500 mb low closing off just south of Montauk Point, A closed 700 mb low overhead, with a strong cold conveyorbelt/comma head signal southwest of the 700 mb low over SE NY/NW NJ. On the bottom right panel you can see QPF >0.25″ in a small area near Sussex County, NJ. We’ll have to see how this plays out but the Euro isn’t the only model that says Friday night could be interesting in SNE.

Temperatures in the boundary layer will be key. The 18z NAM shows 2m temperatures near 40F in the valleys but upper 30s in the hills of SNE which makes me think snow accumulation is a possibility above 500′ and especially above 1000′ if this solution comes to pass. I haven’t had time to load up the BUFKIT soundings yet so I’m ballparking here. Notice the enhanced blob of 3 hour QPF (0.2″-0.25″) near New Haven as the comma head swings through. Strong winds as well… sustained 15-25 knots it looks like across most of CT.

This is going to be an interesting event. It’s unusual that one of these setups delivers so we’ll have to see. Too early to get too excited but this could be a quick-hitting, dynamic event. We’re still >72 hours out so things undoubtedly will change some.

Ryan

2 thoughts on “Another Quick Update”

  1. This is great stuff. I struggle to keep up with day-to-day weather anymore (especially outside of severe weather season), but reading this gets my winter forecasting juices flowing again and brings back (fond?) memories of NEMAS. I'll try to check in here regularly and provide comments on the occasions when I'm in tune with the weather/models. In the meantime, you need a sleeker blogspot theme ;)-Ryan S.

  2. Hey, thanks Ryan! Want to work on that sleeker theme for me? hahaI want to head out to the midwest to go chasing this spring if I can pull off some vacation time from work! You still at OU?

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