I’m not overly enthused about the severe weather threat today. That said, there are several mixed signals. The key has been all along how much low level moisture we’ll see over Connecticut. Rich low level moisture means big storms while less moisture should effectively eliminate the threat for strong thunderstorms. Take this morning’s HRRR for example.
That’s some impressive drying!
The SREFs on the other hand show much higher levels of low level moisture with dew points >60F and CAPE around and in excess of 1000 j/kg.
You can see here there’s decent clustering of the ensemble members with dew points in the 60s for BDL. No member is anywhere near the HRRR with dew points dropping into the 50s and 40s by afternoon.
The 6z NAM has also trended a bit drier and a bit less impressive.
So today will be all about watching how quickly the low level moisture moves out of the state. With strong wind shear any storms that develop could become severe with adequate CAPE. The best chance for severe weather today will be in eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts up through portions of New Hampshire and Maine.